Picks to Win & Best Bets for The Open at Royal Portrush

The Open is my jam. Early-morning alarms, 10 cups of coffee, links golf (hopefully in the elements). It’s just the best. So to say I’m excited for this week would be a gross understatement.

Plus, Royal Portrush is about as pure as it gets. This place is breathtaking to look at, and I’m sure terrifying to play. I mean, your first tee shot has to be squeezed between out-of-bounds areas left and right of the fairway. That’s my nightmare.

It’s going to be a hell of a week, and let’s start it with a tournament preview and several picks to win. Let’s jump into it.

Open Championship: How to Watch | Ranking the Field

Golf Course and Open History

Royal Portrush | Par 71 | 7,381 yards

Odds to Win The Open at Royal Portrush

Scottie Scheffler (+450)

Rory McIlroy (+700)

Jon Rahm (+1200)

Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)

Xander Schauffele (+2500)

Tommy Fleetwood (+2800)

Ludvig Aberg (+2800)

Collin Morikawa (+3000)

Viktor Hovland (+3000)

Shane Lowry (+3000)

Tyrrell Hatton (+3300)

Robert MacIntyre (+3500)

Joaquin Niemann (+5000)

Justin Thomas (+5000)

Matt Fitzpatrick (+5500)

Jordan Spieth (+5500)

Sepp Straka (+5500)

Patrick Cantlay (+5500)

Brooks Koepka (+5500)

Russell Henley (+6500)

Picks to Win & Best Bets for The Open at Royal Portrush

Rory McIlroy (7/1)

I’m doing it. I’m putting Rory on the card. I couldn’t be more emotionally invested in the hometown kid this week—and for good reason. He’s turned into a fantastic links player. Sure, he’s missed a few cuts at The Open in recent years (2024, 2019), but he’s also been in the mix several times. Here’s a look at his finishes since 2014: Win (2014), T-5 (2016), T-4 (2017), T-2 (2018), MC (2019), T-46 (2021), 3rd (2022), T-6 (2023), and MC (2024). And listening to him talk for the last few days, it sounds like he’s got his game back to where it was entering the Masters. I couldn’t think of a better way for him to finish off his career-year than a win at home. Let’s do that damn thing.

Jon Rahm (12/1)

Mr. Jon Rahm, welcome to the card! He’s played some great golf in major championships this year, and I think that’s going to continue at Portrush. He tied for 14th at the Masters, for eighth at the PGA Championship, and for seventh at the U.S. Open. It feels like a lock he’ll be in contention, it’s just a matter of will he get it across the finish line. Rahm, who’s coming off a second-place finish at last week’s LIV event, tied for 11th in the 2019 Open, which was played at Portrush. And for the cherry on top, he’s finished T-11 or better in four of the last five Opens. There’s just a lot to like about Rahm this week.

Tommy Fleetwood (28/1)

I feel like Tommy has had a permanent residence on my card for the last six months, and here we are again! The Englishman has excelled at The Open in recent years, including a silver medal here back in 2019. He missed the cut at Troon last season, but tied for 10th in 2023 and for fourth in 2022. I will say, if he doesn’t get it done on Sunday, I’ll have to put him on the shelf for a while—if that happens, bet on him immediately, he’ll probably win.

Jordan Spieth (55/1)

A few years ago, I swore to myself that I’d bet on Jordan Spieth in every Open. So, here we are. Since his win at Birkdale in 2017, his worst finish in this event is a tie for 25th (2024) in six starts. The dude just loves links golf. And it’s easy to forget since he withdrew from the Travelers that he played some great golf at the U.S. Open (T-23) and Memorial (T-7) in his two starts before Connecticut. And, as they say, beware the injured golfer—he’s completely fine, but it helps my argument.