2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush: Top 25 Competitors, Ranked

In case you missed it: I’m in Ireland, and have been since July 6th. I’ve been on an epic golf trip with my dad and two buddies, then will drive north to Portrush to re-engage with the professional golf world ahead of the year’s final major. As such, as I have written these rankings before the Genesis Scottish Open, so pardon any anachronisms. But by this point in the season we’ve all watched so much golf—if we don’t have a feel for it by now, we’re hopeless.

Incredibly, the final major of 2025 is upon us. Come Sunday afternoon, you’ll be staring at a nine-month major abyss and the resulting dread that comes with it (though I’ve got an exhibition on Long Island this fall that you might be interested in). It’s vital to soak up each and every moment of The Open, the oldest tournament in our sport. That starts with reading through the 25 guys who I believe have the best chance to win this thing. Of course, as J.J. Spaun reminded us last month in Pittsburgh, there are more than 25 guys capable of winning this golf tournament. But I’m rolling with these guys, and I hope you’ll enjoy reading more about their seasons thus far. Happy reading, and happy major viewing:

25. Justin Thomas

Age: 32 Data Golf Ranking: 7 Best Open finish: T11, 2019

A very good year in the signature events, a very poor year in the majors. He’s gone T36/CUT/CUT in the big ones this year and he now arrives at the one that’s given him the most difficulty. It’s a bit curious why he hasn’t played better in Opens—he’s an old-school-feel type player who loves to work the ball with different shapes and trajectories, and that should play well overseas. That said, his best Open finish came at this very golf course with a T11 in 2019.

24. Keegan Bradley

Age: 39 Data Golf Ranking: 6 Best Open finish: T15, 2023

Will he, or won’t he? That’s the huge question as the Ryder Cup creeps ever close and his game continues to get stronger. Bradley’s won two massive events in the last 11 months—the BMW Championship last season and, just a few weeks ago, the Travelers Championship. A top 10 at the Open, which would be his first, would seem to make it almost impossible for him not to be a playing-captain. He said after the Travelers that he was never going to play on this team unless he won a tournament, and he did. He said it changed his calculus but wanted to see how the rest of the season fared. This is a big tournament, but let’s not forget he’s never played well in the Open, the Ryder Cup isn’t on a links course, and there are still three playoff events when he returns.

23. Matt Fitzpatrick

Age: 30 Data Golf Ranking: 34 Best Open finish: T20, 2019

In his own words it’s been a “rubbish” year. In mine, it’s the worst season of his career, at least since he established himself on the DP World Tour in 2015, but there have been signs of life just in time for a Ryder Cup push. He dropped outside the top 50 in the world with poor ball striking that coincided with his longtime coach, Mike Walker, having to stay in England to deal with a family matter. He has since begun working with Mark Blackburn and there’s been some promising results: he’s gone T17 at the Travelers, T8 at the Rocket and T3 at the Scottish in his last three starts and, most encouragingly, his iron play was strong in each. He's playing in his 10th consecutive Open but hasn’t managed better than T20.

22. Bryson DeChambeau

Age: 31 Data Golf Ranking: 3 Best Open finish: T8, 2022

He’d contended in five of six majors heading into Oakmont but threw up a stinker in Pittsburgh to miss the cut for the first time since…last year’s Open Championship. He is a distinctly modern player with his power and sky-high ball flight, and this tournament has totally flummoxed him in years past. His one top-25 finish in seven Open starts came at St. Andrews, which played far easier and bomber-friendly than Portrush will (he missed the cut in 2019). He’s a threat any time he tees it up on a parkland golf course. But there are so many variables in links golf, and he simply hasn’t shown an ability to adjust on the fly and roll with the punches. I’m not sold on him as an Open Championship player. Yet.

21. Daniel Berger

Age: 32 Data Golf Ranking: 37 Best Open finish: T8, 2021

A really strong start to the year, but as the weather’s heated up around the country his game has cooled. Back-to-back missed cuts at Colonial and the Memorial were followed by a T46 at the U.S. Open and a T42 in the limited-field Travelers Championship and all the sudden his Ryder Cup hopes are on life support. This will mark his first Open start since 2021 and I love his lower ball flight on weeks like these—you don’t need to hit it sky-high like you do in U.S. Opens or PGA Championships. If the weather’s bad the low burner is your friend. With an average apex height of 81 feet on his drives Berger’s got one of the lowest balls on tour. He’s a gritty grinder who will want the weather to be as difficult as possible.

20. Ludvig Aberg

Age: 25 Data Golf Ranking: 30 Best Open finish: WIN, 2019

A very strange and, on the whole, slightly disappointing 2025 thus far for the Swede. Began the year with the biggest win of his young career at the Genesis at Torrey Pines but has since experienced his first prolonged struggle-session. He missed back-to-back cuts before the Masters only to somehow manufacture a seventh-place finish there—and it could’ve been better if not for an awful finish. But he has not even semi contended since, and has no top 10s in his last seven starts, including missed cuts at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. There’s no long-term concern here but it hasn’t been the year many expected including myself, who predicted he’d be the next to unseat Scottie Scheffler as world No. 1. It could still happen, by the way, as no one’s managed to knock him off the perch since May 2023.

19. Ryan Fox

Age: 38 Data Golf Ranking: 30 Best Open finish: T16, 2019

The son of a proper All Blacks legend, the younger Fox has broken through in the U.S. this year with wins at the Myrtle Beach Classic and the RBC Canadian Open. His homemade swing is a sight to behold—he didn’t have a lesson until he was 16, and his swing looks like what you’d get when you give a highly coordinated person a golf club with little other instruction. Now, he’s enjoying this PGA TOUR chapter of life. He didn’t expect to play the U.S. Open or the Travelers at the beginning of June but those are good problems to have, and he got a few weeks of rest before heading back over to the familiar grounds of Europe.

18. J.J. Spaun

Age: 34 Data Golf Ranking: 17 Best Open finish: First

That he’s an Open rookie speaks to his late evolution as a player. This past U.S. Open was his first start in our national championship since 2021, and his remarkable triumph at Oakmont was a victory for the late bloomers out there. He celebrated properly with the impromptu New York media tour and was surely running on fumes when he pulled up to the Travelers Championship. He closed that week in Cromwell with a 63, so the game hasn’t gone anywhere. Spaun's a lock to make the Ryder Cup team and now he gets his first start in golf’s oldest tournament. Of the four biggest events played thus far this year—the three majors and the Players—he’s shot the lowest score in two of them, losing to Rory McIlroy in a playoff at the Players after his 30-footer for the win came up a revolution short.

17. Ben Griffin

Age: 29 Data Golf Ranking: 9 Best Open finish: CUT in both appearances

Every Ryder Cup cycle there’s one player from totally off the radar who plays so well he leaves the captain with no choice. That’s been Griffin this year. He’s broken through with his first two PGA TOUR wins, he finished solo second to Scottie Scheffler at the Memorial, he took T8 at the PGA and T10 at the U.S. Open and he entered the John Deere with six straight finishes of T14. It doesn’t feel flukey at all, and he’s carrying himself with the swagger of a top 10 player. He now gets his third crack at an Open and his first chance to make the weekend, and he’s turning up overseas with a totally different energy than he had in his first two visits.

16. Jordan Spieth

Age: 31 Data Golf Ranking: 23 Best Open finish: WIN, 2017

There’s an injury concern here after he withdrew from the Travelers with a neck/upper back back injury. It didn’t look good at all—he was wincing after basically every shot. Incredibly, that was the first time he’d withdrawn from an event at any level. The timing’s poor, because he’d shown some consistency this year after the offseason wrist surgery. That’s why the advanced metrics are higher on him than the world rankings, which overweight great finishes and under-reward consistently good ones. Dating back to the WM Phoenix Open he’s got eight top-25 finishes in 14 events, including at the Masters (T14) and U.S. Open (T23). He needs a strong finish in the year’s final major and the FedEx playoffs to make the Ryder Cup team.

15. Jason Day

Age: 37 Data Golf Ranking: 22 Best Open finish: T2, 2023

Had a chance to win his first PGA TOUR event since May 2023 in his last start at the Travelers and while you might group him in with Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose, he’s a half-generation younger and still firmly in his winning years. Day's short game remains world-class, both chipping and putting, and the neck injury that kept him out of the Truist Championship has not shown any signs of lingering. He somehow managed to shoot three over in the first round of the John Deere so his second-round 67 was all for naught.

14. Shane Lowry

Age: 38 Data Golf Ranking: 30 Best Open finish: WIN, 2019

What a scene it was six years ago—an Irishman waltzing to his first major victory on the island he calls home. You just wish he was in a bit better form coming in this time around. Lowry was in semi-contention after 54 holes at Augusta only to tumble down the board with a final-round 81, then missed the cut at both Quail Hollow and Oakmont and looked generally annoyed in the process. Perhaps a long stretch of golf took its toll, and he’s opted for three weeks of rest back home in Ireland rather than playing the Scottish Open.

13. Joaquin Niemann

Age: 26 Data Golf Ranking: 11 Best Open finish: T53, 2022

LIV’s dominant force had a semi-breakthrough at Quail Hollow when he notched his first major top 10 in his 24th attempt. His 25th major start yielded a missed cut at Oakmont and he finished T23 at LIV Dallas, which by his (and that tour’s) standards is a really poor effort. You’d think his lower natural ball flight would suit him well in Opens but his best finish in five efforts is a tie for 53rd. He might be the hardest player to forecast in world golf: he’s been an absolute force on LIV since he joined but simply has not been the same player against world-class fields in the biggest events.

12. Patrick Reed

Age: 34 Data Golf Ranking: 28 Best Open finish: 10th, 2019

Won his first LIV Golf event in his home state of Texas which has prompted some Ryder Cup chatter. This week is huge toward that end—he finished solo third at the Masters this year but it feels like he needs to make another major statement to be in serious consideration, and given his choice of tours this week’s his last true opportunity to do it. A bit of a mixed bag in Open Championships in the past—he’s a Masters specialist when it comes to majors—but had his best ever finish with a 10th at Portrush in 2019.

11. Sepp Straka

Age: 32 Data Golf Ranking: 18 Best Open finish: T2, 2023

Riding high in the FedEx Cup and world rankings thanks to wins at The American Express and the Truist Championship, his first signature event victory. There’s been so much good this year—those wins, plus a solo third at the Memorial—but he has missed the cut in the first three majors of the year. While he’s going to make the Ryder Cup team regardless, that is simply not good enough, so he’ll be relishing one last opportunity this year to put on a good major showing. Caddie Duane Bock is back on the bag after he used a fill-in for his win at Truist and most of the other summer tournaments thus far.

10. Xander Schauffele

Age: 31 Data Golf Ranking: 14 Best Open finish: WIN, 2024

A frustrating year thus far for the defending champ, who missed two months with a rib injury at the beginning of the year and hasn’t been the same player upon his return. There have been a number of solid finishes, but just one top 10 in 10 starts since he’s been back is a very disappointing return. It was at this tournament last year that he played the best weekend in Open history, a flawless 65 on Sunday pushing him past a pack of emotional chasers: Justin Rose, Shane Lowry and Billy Horschel. Schauffele cut a rather stoic figure against that backdrop, methodically picking up apart Royal Troon. A master at work. But that was then and this is now, and his last start before heading to the UK was a horrific T61 at the Travelers.

9. Russell Henley

Age: 36 Data Golf Ranking: 6 Best Open finish: 5th, 2024

Five top 10s in signature events this season has been excellent for the world ranking (No. 6), Data Golf ranking (No. 6), Ryder Cup points list (No. 4) and his bank account ($9.23 million already on-course this season). He missed the cut in the first two majors of the year, a move that prompted him to change direction with his coaching, as he could not risk missing Bethpage. Henley bounced back from those MC’s with a T10 at the U.S. Open and he returns to the UK after a breakthrough Open performance at Troon (solo 5th) last year. He and Berger have the lowest ball flights on this list, so he’ll be wanting that wind to pump.

8. Robert MacIntyre

Age: 28 Data Golf Ranking: 20 Best Open finish: T6, 2019

Won twice last year, both in very dramatic fashion, and has kept the good times rolling in 2025. Nearly captured the U.S. Open with a terrific Sunday 68 at Oakmont and could only clap when J.J. Spaun hooped one from 64 feet. He has the rare trait of playing better in high-leverage moments and will be a key contributor to Luke Donald’s team at Bethpage Black. Prior to Oakmont his best finish in a major was a T6 at Royal Portrush in his first ever major start. I like his chances this week.

7. Collin Morikawa

Age: 28 Data Golf Ranking: 8 Best Open finish: WIN, 2021

It's been an eventful year, at least in the headline department. Morikawa posted a couple of runner-up finishes in signature events at the beginning of 2025—one where he shot 32-under at Kapalua and lost by three to a record-setting performance from Hideki Matsuyama, the other when he got beat by Russell Henley at Bay Hill then declined to speak to media after. That kicked off a frosty chapter between the two-time major winner and the press; he evoked strong feelings when he said he “didn’t owe” the media anything. It all kicked off again after a few moves on the caddie front. He parted ways with J.J. Jakovac after six extremely successful years and his replacement, Joe Greiner, lasted just five events. Morikawa took issue to how the news was reported at the Rocket Classic and let his feelings be known, prompting another spirited news cycle. On the course it has been a relatively disappointing summer—his T8 at the Rocket ended a streak of seven straight events without a top 10, and the putter, a fickle mistress throughout his career, has gone a bit cold. He switched to a mallet over the weekend at the Rocket, however, and improved. Billy Foster, a proper legend who's carried the bag for Seve Ballesteros, Darren Clarke, Lee Westwood, and won a major with Matt Fitzpatrick, will be on the bag for Morikawa at Royal Portrush.

6. Rory McIlroy

Age: 36 Data Golf Ranking: 4 Best Open finish: T2, 2023

He achieved Golfing Immortality then experienced an acute adrenaline dump. That’s the only way to describe his month or so following the Masters, as McIlroy played uninspired golf and carried himself with a general aloofness. He talked about needing to find another Mt. Everest after winning his green jacket and what better time than now, when he returns to play another major championship just minutes away from where he grew up? Zoom out and it’s still been an incredible year: he won at Pebble, the Players and the Masters, and now he gets a chance to wash away that bitterly disappointing missed cut at Royal Portrush in 2019, when he began his tournament with disaster and came up one shot short after a Friday 65. He’s played better in his last five rounds, too, with a 67 in the final round at Oakmont, a T6 at the Travelers, and a T2 at the Scottish Open. If he can’t get up for this, he can’t get up for anything.

5. Tommy Fleetwood

Age: 34 Data Golf Ranking: 5 Best Open finish: 2, 2019

Watching him bogey three of his first four and two of his last three to lose the Travelers Championship was a painful experience. He’s a beloved player on TOUR, he’s been absolutely terrific this year (No. 5 in Data Golf rankings) and he’s given himself umpteen opportunities to win on the PGA TOUR…but he hasn’t, and that’s a burden he carries. He finished solo second to Shane Lowry at the 2019 Open at Portrush, so there are plenty of positives to draw back on. And yet, for all the great play in signature events and the like this year, he’s gone T21/T41/CUT at the majors this year thus far.

4. Viktor Hovland

Age: 27 Data Golf Ranking: 18 Best Open finish: T4, 2022

A solo third at the U.S. Open was his fourth finish of T4 in his last 12 major starts—I’m not a math guy, but being in with a shout in one of every three majors ain’t too shabby. He then withdrew from the Travelers during the final round with a neck injury that’s worth keeping an eye on. His approach play has been excellent for most of the year, even as he continues to tinker with his motion, but a wide-right miss with the driver has poked its ugly head at inopportune times. Three finishes of 13 or better in his four Open starts but did miss the cut last year at Royal Troon. He could well be the Best Player Without A Major and there’s only one chance before April 2026 to remove himself from a list no one wants to be on.

3. Tyrell Hatton

Age: 33 Data Golf Ranking: 10 Best Open finish: T5, 2016

One of a handful of LIV Golf personalities who are truly missed on the PGA TOUR. No one speaks their mind as much as he does—almost exclusively about golf holes he disagrees with. There are plenty. He put himself in proper contention late on Sunday in a major for the first time at Oakmont only to get a few bad breaks down the stretch (actual bad breaks, not Tyrrell bad breaks) and had a chance to win the LIV Dallas event in his next start after. Would be no surprise at all if he got across the major line and his T6 at Portrush in 2019 bodes well.

2. Scottie Scheffler

Age: 29 Data Golf Ranking: 1 Best Open finish: T7, 2024

No. 1 in the world rankings, No. 1 on Data Golf, No. 1 in the FedEx Cup, No. 1 in strokes gained total, No. 1 in strokes gained off the tee, No. 1 in strokes gained approach. It’s a damn good formula. That’s how you win 16 times in three years including three majors, and he comes in with nine straight finishes of T8 or better, and he’s been in the top 10 in nine of the last 11 major championships. All that said, the one major he hasn’t had a chance to win yet is the Open, though he did post a career-best T7 at Troon last year and there’s not a golf course in the world that has an answer for perfect golf shot after perfect golf shot. He hardly ever plays outside the United States (he’s a self-proclaimed homebody) but he’ll be locked in with a chance to add a fourth major, his first Open and be 75% of the way to the career grand slam. Xander won multiple majors last year, why can’t Scottie do it this year?

1. Jon Rahm

Age: 30 Data Golf Ranking: 2 Best Open finish: T2, 2023

His perfect streak of top 10s in LIV events came to an end in Dallas (he took T11, naturally) but he’s been so solid this year that Data Golf pegs him as the best golfer not named Scottie Scheffler. A strong major season—he’s been top 10 in all three this year and four straight dating back to last year’s Open—has quieted the whole 'Has he lost a step since going to LIV?' conversation. Having a truly amazing stretch with his driver—we’re talking Bryson/Rory levels—and has top 10s in three of the last four Opens. Took T11 at the ‘19 Open at Portrush, too. All signs point toward a strong week, and we like his chances to get ¾ of the way to the career Grand Slam and regain his place among Rory and Scheffler as one of this generation’s top dogs. He’s also won on this island before, capturing the Irish Open twice. He gets it done north of the border this time.