Florida Swing Preview: Can Rory McIlroy Slip Into the Red Cardigan (Again)?

The West Coast Swing has some of the best events of the season, but for whatever reason, the PGA TOUR’s trip around the Sunshine State feels like the true start of the golf year. Maybe it’s the palm trees. Maybe it’s the water everywhere you look. Maybe it’s the weather. Whatever it is, when the TOUR hits Florida, it feels like golf is officially back.

It begins with the Cognizant Classic, then rolls straight into THE PLAYERS, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the Valspar Championship. A little more than a month later, we’re back again for the new Cadillac Championship at Trump National Doral.

Meanwhile, a blizzard is blasting the Northeast—I’m starting to think I may never play golf again—so I need to think warm thoughts. With that in mind, here's a preview of the TOUR’s annual party on the peninsula, including some players to keep an eye on.

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(Note: Since the field isn't out for the Valspar, I skipped it for now)

Cognizant Classic

Golf course: PGA National (Champion Course) | Par 71 | 7,223 yards

Purse/Winner’s check: $9.6 million/$1.728 million

Defending champion: Joe Highsmith

Pick to win: Nicolai Hojgaard

Before even glancing at the odds board for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National Resort, I had two names circled: Jake Knapp and Min Woo Lee. Given their current form and track record in Palm Beach Gardens, they felt like layups.

Neither made the trip.

So, I pivoted.

Nicolai Højgaard is next man up.

Through two starts this season, the Dane has absolutely flushed it: seventh in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, first in SG: Off the Tee and 17th in SG: Approach. The ball-striking is elite.

The caveat? He’s 135th in driving accuracy.

There’s water lurking everywhere at PGA National—especially over the closing three-hole gauntlet known as the Bear Trap. If he gets even slightly loose with the driver, things can unravel in a hurry.

That said, he ranked 25th in the field in driving accuracy here a year ago, which suggests he’s comfortable with the visuals and committed to his lines. And when he’s seeing it well off the tee, the power becomes a weapon rather than a liability.

If he reproduces his performance with the big-stick we saw in 2025, he’s hitting it too purely not to be a factor come Sunday.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Golf course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge | Par 72 | 7,466 yards

Purse/Winner’s check: $20 million/$4 million

Status: Signature event

Defending champion: Russell Henley

Pick to win: Rory McIlroy

This one felt about as close to a no-brainer as it gets.

Rory McIlroy has opened his season with a T-14 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a runner-up finish at the The Genesis Invitational. He’s trending exactly the way you’d want him to. I’ve got a feeling he bags one before heading back to Augusta, and this sets up as the perfect spot.

The lone hesitation? The putter.

It went ice cold over the weekend at Riviera, and the same story played out across four days on the Monterey Peninsula. When the Spider cools off, it can stall even the best ball-striking weeks.

But next week he’s back on Bermuda at Bay Hill Club & Lodge—his preferred surface, and one he sees daily at The Bear's Club. If there’s anywhere on TOUR where he’s comfortable reading and rolling it, it’s The King’s Place—seventh in SG: putting in 2025.

If the putter cooperates even a little, the rest of the field could be playing for second.

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THE PLAYERS

Golf course: TPC Sawgrass | Par 72 | 7,352 yards

Purse/Winner’s check: $25 million/$4.5 million

Status: Signature event

Defending champion: Rory McIlroy

Pick to win: Jake Knapp

There aren’t many players on the planet performing at a higher clip right now than Jake Knapp. He’s done everything but win.

T-11 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. T-5 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Eighth at the WM Phoenix Open. T-8 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Sixth at the The Genesis Invitational.

It’s a ridiculous stretch of consistency—and it hasn’t been smoke and mirrors. Knapp ranks inside the top 50 in every key Strokes Gained category. He’s long off the tee and the putter has been scorching. That combination travels.

At THE PLAYERS, he’s already shown he can handle the stage. After a T-45 debut in 2024, he followed it up with rounds of 69-68 to open last year's edition before cooling off on the weekend. Even so, he finished T-12—a strong sophomore showing at the TOUR’s flagship event.

The hesitation? He hasn’t won a big one.

Knapp’s lone TOUR victory came at the Mexico Open—an event that doesn’t always draw the game’s heaviest hitters. He’s stacked high finishes in premier fields, but he hasn’t yet stared one down on the back nine.

Of course, you haven’t done it until you do.

And with the way he’s striking it tee-to-green, I like his chances in Ponte Vedra to take that next step.

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Valspar Championship

Golf course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) | Par 71 | 7,352 yards

Purse/Winner’s check: $9.1 million/$1.638 million

Defending champion: Viktor Hovland

Stay Tuned.