I Feel Very Conflicted on Rory McIlroy’s Chances at Oakmont

I have no clue how to feel about Rory McIlroy heading into this week’s U.S. Open. There’s just a lot to digest.

First, let’s tackle what’s been going on with him lately.

Since tying for seventh at the Truist Championship, a four-and-a-half hour drive from Oakmont Country Club, he’s finished T-47 at the PGA Championship and missed the cut at last week’s RBC Canadian Open thanks to a second-round 78.

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This tough stretch started once his driver was deemed nonconforming at Quail Hollow. Everything’s been downhill since. He tested out TaylorMade’s latest offering at TPC Toronto, but that obviously didn’t work. He’s put the Qi10 back in the bag, which is the same model he used to win at Pebble, TPC Sawgrass, and the Masters earlier this year. We’ll see if that rekindles some good vibes.

During his pre-tournament presser on Tuesday, he told the media that he came out to Oakmont last Monday for a practice round and birdied his final two holes to shoot an 81. Yup, that’s right, that number starts with an eight. Not good!

“Last Monday felt impossible,” McIlroy said. “I birdied the last two holes for 81. It felt pretty good. It didn't feel like I played that bad…They had the pins in dicey locations, and greens were running at 15 1/2. It was nearly impossible.”

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He did mention that the rain this place has gotten over the last few days have softened it up a bit, so fairways are easier to hit and greens are easier to hold. It’s still going to be a brutal test, but any relief is welcomed by these guys.

And for the cherry on top, he missed the cut here in 2016 thanks to an opening-round 77.

“Yeah, don't really remember much about 2016,” MIlroy said. “I think I just tried to erase it from the memory bank.”

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So, after hearing all that, you’re probably wondering why I feel conflicted. Nothing about that says he’s prepped and ready to make a run at the title. But hear me out.

He’s played some of his best golf at the U.S. Open over the last handful of years. Here’s a look at his past six finishes: 2nd (Pinehurst No. 2, 2024), 2nd (Los Angeles Country Club, 2023), T-5 (The Country Club, 2022), T-7 (Torrey Pines, 2021), T-8 (Winged Foot, 2020), and T-9 (Pebble Beach, 2019).

Hell, he had one hand on the trophy last year before turning around and handing it off to Bryson DeChambeau.

Plus, this is a big ballpark! His distance off the tee will be a huge advantage if he can find a way to hit some fairways.

So, overall, do I feel great about Rory’s chances? I have no idea.

But his game is never that far off. In fact, the last time he missed a cut prior to a major championship was in 2022 when he went on to finish solo second at the Masters.

All we can do now is sit back and watch.