Collin Morikawa's Tee-to-Green Stats Set Him Up Right for Bay Hill

The TOUR gears up for two massive weeks between the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. These two weeks are going to challenge the top players in the world, starting this week in Orlando.

Bay Hill is a venue of compounding errors. Making a mistake off-the-tee leads to a mistake on the approach shot, which puts you in a difficult spot on and around-the-greens. By the time you walk off the hole, you’re scratching your head on how you made such a big number with just a few below average shots. Here are a few players to target that I believe are up for the challenge.

Winner: Collin Morikawa (+3000)

He’s baccckkkk! Collin Morikawa is striping it right now, truly vintage stuff from the two-time Major Winner. He’s earned over 18 strokes from tee-to-green in his last twelve rounds which have propelled him to a win at Pebble Beach and a T7 at Riviera. His accuracy off-the-tee will save him plenty of strokes this week, like it did last year when he finished as a runner-up. He’s brimming with confidence and the stat profile screams success on the horizon.

Top 5: Scottie Scheffler (-144)

There’s a reason that Scheffler is a favorite to finish inside the Top 5 – he’s the best player in the world and it’s not particularly close. He’s boasting a +2.59 sg/rd rate in 2026 which is nearly identical (+2.56) to his rounds at Bay Hill in his career. He’s twice a winner around these parts and has never finished worse than T15.

Top 5: Hideki Matsuyama (+490)

It’s already been a successful year for Matsuyama who has four top-13 finishes but, at the same time, I’m surprised with how little he has gotten out of the campaign. He’s gained over 11 strokes putting in his last 12 rounds alone and when Matsuyama putts well, the trophies start rolling in. He absolutely needs to tighten his driver but may benefit from the rest of the field missing more fairways than usual.

Top 10: Jake Knapp (+270)

It’s been a special start to the year for Knapp and there’s no reason to think it’ll stop anytime soon. He’s been outstanding, gaining +2.23 strokes to the field in 2026, the third best of anyone on TOUR. He’ll likely play out of the rough as Bay Hill, but so will everyone, which could actually benefit Knapp. He ranks inside the top-10 of rough proximity thanks to his elite clubhead speed.

Top 20: Ryan Fox (+295)

The results (T24, T24, T7) look consistent but don’t let that fool you. Fox has been an absolute rollercoaster in getting to those finishing positions. He ranks inside the top-15 in birdie average and outside the top-60 in bogey avoidance. He makes a bunch of scores – both good and bad. However, I’m an optimist and think it’s easier to clean up the big numbers than make more birdies. He’s been stellar in so many facets of the game, he could truly contend if everything comes together.

Top 20: Rickie Fowler (+140)

Fowler has been a staple at Bay Hill in his career, playing it 13 times since 2010 – the third most of anyone on TOUR. His results have been good, but not great. He’s only missed one cut but he only has one top-10 finish. The good news is that he’s routinely gaining strokes from tee-to-green there and now he’s having his best putting seasons since 2017.

Matchup: Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Xander Schauffele

Schauffele has struggled with the flat-stick since the start of 2025, putting up numbers that are significantly below his career averages – particularly from 10’ and in. On the flipside, Tommy Fleetwood is playing the best golf of his career and his well-rounded skill-set should play well at Bay Hill.