Why We're Buying a Scottie Scheffler 3-Peat at the Memorial

Muirfield Village is set to host the best players in the world this week, and it’s not going to be an easy task. This venue routinely ranks as one of the most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR schedule thanks to its demand for elite tee-to-green play.

The cost of missing the fairway is significant, statistically one of the most penalizing on the calendar. If Mother Nature cooperates, the course will be firm and fast, which will require elite precision on the second shot.

Scottie Scheffler has gone back-to-back at this event, winning at both 10-under par and 8-under par. I should note that his win last year was by four strokes, so anything close to double digits under par should be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

You can’t fake it around Muirfield Village, so let’s build a betting card that reflects that truth.

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+260)

If there was ever a time to accept the short odds of Scottie Scheffler, it’d be right now. The best player in the world benefits from a small field with no cut, but he also gets to lean on his elite course history at Muirfield Village.

Scheffler has gained 2.87 strokes per round in his career at Muirfield Village, which is the second-best course for him behind only TPC Craig Ranch at 2.90. He has turned that record into two wins and two third-place finishes in his six trips to this venue.

He has decimated Muirfield Village through his tee-to-green play, gaining 3.04 strokes per round in that category. That is the single-best player-course combination for tee-to-green play in the ShotLink era.

Scheffler has “only” earned one trophy in 2026, but he’s entering this week with a podium finish in four of his last five starts. His “win luck” this year has been below average, but that’s on the verge of turning in his favor.

Winner: Min Woo Lee (+3700)

The ever-talented Min Woo Lee is in the midst of the best season of his career. He’s gaining 1.32 strokes per round in 2026, which is technically slightly worse than his 2023 season, but he was playing mostly on the DP World Tour and Asian Tour at the time. This is elite, high-level play on the best circuit in the world.

He’s improved significantly on approach this year. For the first time in his career, he’s an above-average player in the category. He’s gaining 0.02 strokes per round, which is more average than above average but still a marked improvement over the rest of his career. In his best season prior to 2026, he was losing 0.27 strokes to the field on approach. So this is a 0.25-stroke improvement per round at the very least.

He’ll enter this week with three straight top-20 finishes across two signature events and a major championship. It won’t be easy to get across the finish line, but Min Woo is talented enough to make it happen.

Top 5: Xander Schauffele (+305)

Schauffele has been a frustrating player to back in 2026, as we’ve seen tons of great play offset by pockets of bad runs that dispel his chances of winning. Despite not having a win in 2026, he has five top-10 finishes, and he’s driving the ball better than ever.

Muirfield Village has been a happy hunting ground for Schauffele, who has finished inside the top 25 in eight consecutive trips to Dublin, Ohio. In those eight trips, he’s gained four or more strokes on approach on five occasions and has often matched that with a positive putting week.

There’s still plenty of upside lurking right under the surface for Schauffele, who should be rewarded for his skill set this week at Muirfield Village.

Top 10: Adam Scott (+310)

A well-rested Scott will enter this week off a missed cut at Aronimink. His tee-to-green play was solid, but he gave up 4.3 strokes on the putting surfaces over two rounds and was sent packing on Friday night. That was his first missed cut of 2026 and his first since the 2025 Open Championship last July.

Scott has risen to elite levels with his approach play, gaining 0.79 strokes per round in 2026. That’s the second-best mark on the TOUR, behind only Collin Morikawa.

His record around Muirfield Village is extensive, as this will be his 18th trip to the venue in his illustrious career. He has five top-10 finishes, with four of those being top-5 results. His 23.5% top-5 rate is the second best of anyone in this field, behind only Patrick Cantlay.

It’s been over six years since his last win, but that’s not the request here. Simply finishing on the first page of the leaderboard will do the trick.

Top 20: Jacob Bridgeman (+170)

After teeing it up 13 times already this year, it looks like Bridgeman needed a break, and he just got one. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and hasn’t played since. This feels like an opportunity for a soft reset on his already successful year.

Despite losing strokes putting in each of his last two events, Bridgeman is one of the best putters on the planet. He also struggled from tee to green over his last three events, again, something he was much better at for the first 10 starts of the year.

I’m not ready to write off Bridgeman for the rest of the year, considering his valuable skill set. He’ll be able to find the fairway at Muirfield Village and beat his peers on the putting surfaces. Both of those are going to be in short supply this week.

Top 20: Billy Horschel (+560)

Horschel struggled on Sunday at Colonial, but that’s not enough for me to wave the white flag. He still gained strokes in all three tee-to-green categories and was inside the top 25 in both driving accuracy and distance. He’s seemingly putting his game back together after back-to-back missed cuts at the PGA Championship and Byron Nelson.

Over his last seven trips to Muirfield Village, he’s compiled five top-15 finishes, including a win in 2022 and a T15 in his most recent start in 2024. He’s been one of the better putters on these surfaces, and it’s one of the best venues for him on the schedule.