Our 10 Best Bets for the 2026 U.S. Open: Winner, Top 5, Cut Makers and More

There might not be a better U.S. Open venue than Shinnecock Hills. It’s going to demand greatness and probably dish out some carnage along the way. The test will be stout, starting with the tee shots. The fairways are more generous than other USGA venues, but the bigger the miss, the bigger the penalty. Rugged rough and fescue lie waiting for the most errant tee shots.

The crowned putting surfaces will reject many shots that dare roll near the edges, making the greens effectively smaller in almost every scenario. Discipline will be required to simply hit it at the middle of the green and putt to the edges where hole locations will be cut.

The winning score might truly be over par, as it was in 2018, but Mother Nature will have a big say in that. There is rain forecast for Thursday, but it’s certainly not a guarantee. Let’s make a betting card for this week’s U.S. Open.

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+450)

It’s been a weird year for Scottie Scheffler. And by “weird,” I mean incredible. Despite “only” having one win, he’s gained 2.33 strokes per round this year, which is still the best mark in the world by a significant gap. He’s the only player on TOUR who eclipses the 2.0 threshold.

To put his year into perspective, this might help:

He’s driving it better than Cameron Young.

He’s hitting his approaches better than Russell Henley.

His around-the-green play is better than Matt Fitzpatrick.

He’s putting it better than Rickie Fowler.

It’s just another year of him being truly elite throughout the bag, but he’s running into a bit of bad win luck. His major championship career is special because he’s been better at majors than in regular events. His 63% top-10 rate is the fourth best in major championship history and the best of anyone who has played in the last 60 years.

Scheffler has never — I repeat, never — lost strokes from tee to green in his major career. That covers 25 of the 27 majors he’s played that have shot-tracking available. Outside of Augusta National, there might not be a better venue for Scheffler than Shinnecock Hills, where his elite precision will be rewarded.

Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)

The time is now. Fleetwood has taken the much-anticipated step of becoming a PGA TOUR winner, thanks to his victory at last year’s TOUR Championship. Now it’s time to take the next step and get it done in a major championship.

The last time Tommy Fleetwood visited Shinnecock Hills, he gained 7.6 strokes on the field in the second round and 9.18 in the final round. Those are still the best and fifth-best rounds of his career, which spans more than 1,300 professional rounds.

Fleetwood has thrust himself into contention at some of the TOUR’s biggest events this year, with top-10s at Pebble Beach, Riviera, TPC Sawgrass, Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village. His well-rounded game thrives on difficult courses where the value of par increases significantly.

His major championship career has been marred by close calls, earning seven top-5s in his 43 career starts, but now is the time he changes that tune.

Top 5: Brooks Koepka (+630)

Let’s start with the easy one. Brooks Koepka won the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. It was the second of his back-to-back U.S. Open titles. In 12 U.S. Open starts, Koepka has five top-5 finishes, which is the best rate (41.7%) of anyone in this field with at least three starts at this championship.

Zooming out just a bit, Koepka has piled up five major championship victories in his career, second in this field to only Rory McIlroy. In 48 major championship starts, he’s gained 1.64 strokes per round, which is the seventh-best mark in the field — though it’s the second best of anyone with as many appearances as Koepka.

Finally, he simply seems to be rounding into form. Back on the PGA TOUR this year, he has played 12 events and has earned six top-20 finishes. His tee-to-green numbers are eye-popping, and he’s been one of the best on the circuit. His putting has definitely been troublesome, but now he’s gained strokes on the field in two straight. The timing couldn’t be any better for one of the best to ever do it.

There is a lingering concern about Koepka’s hand/wrist. He was dealing with an issue on the weekend last week that he described as “the club is kind of just, my fingers would come loose, it was kind of numb.” He withdrew before the final round, which could be perceived as both a positive and a negative. That doesn’t lend itself to great confidence, but it’s something worth monitoring.

Top 5: Patrick Reed (+920)

Few are able to elevate their game in major championships the way Patrick Reed has done in his career. In his 47 career major starts, Reed has gained 1.33 strokes per round. There are only 10 other players in this field who have a better strokes-gained average per round through 30-plus career major starts.

He’s already finished T12 and T10 at the first two majors of this year, which makes sense because he’s in the midst of the best season of his career. So far in 2026, Reed has two wins and five top-10s in only eight starts globally. His 2.23 strokes gained per round is nearly a full stroke better than the next-best year of his career: 2020.

His 62.5% top-10 rate is second behind just Jon Rahm in 2026, but Reed has played in fields significantly larger than Rahm this year. As if you needed any more convincing, Reed finished fourth at Shinnecock Hills in 2018.

Top 10: Tyrrell Hatton (+400)

Hatton will enter this week with a win in his most recent start: LIV Andalucia. That marked his first win of the year but his third worldwide top-5 in his last five starts. The Englishman has rounded into form with his irons, gaining 3-plus strokes on approach at both LIV Andalucia and the PGA Championship. He also accomplished that feat at the Masters this year.

Speaking of his major championship success, Hatton has significantly improved his results in majors from his early-career struggles. Since the 2022 PGA Championship, Hatton has gained 1.30 strokes per round in 17 major starts. That’s a full stroke per round better than the 0.27 per-round mark for the first 26 majors of his career.

Hatton only has two top-10s at U.S. Opens, but they are arguably the two best in terms of handicapping for this week. They include his T4 last year and a T6 at Shinnecock Hills. That covers both recent results and results back at the same venue.

Top 10: Jordan Spieth (+530)

Trying to predict the results for Jordan Spieth is one of the most difficult things I can possibly imagine, yet here we are. The three-time major winner has 14 top-10s in these events, but his most recent was the 2023 Masters, when he finished T4. Despite the long time away from the first page of the leaderboard, Spieth has certainly turned the corner in 2026.

He’s driving the ball better than he has in a long time, gaining more than 12 strokes off the tee in his last 18 rounds. That’s been the most consistent aspect of his game for the first time in … ever? The rest of his game has flashed brilliance for two or three rounds at a time. He’s tantalizingly close to putting it all together.

His missed cut at the Memorial was his first in a 13-tournament stretch where he earned seven top-20 finishes. All the skills are here. Spieth just needs to get them in order.

Top 20: Brian Harman (+495)

Harman missed the cut at the Memorial, snapping a streak of 11 straight weekends played. He lost strokes on approach that week for the first time in nine starts, making those few days appear more like an outlier than anything to be overly concerned about.

Speaking of cuts made, Harman has made the weekend in nine majors in a row while beating his peers with the putter in nearly every one of them. Harman has often thrived on course setups that don’t “fit him on paper,” but his driving accuracy and precision with his irons are often well-rewarded in these setups. The putter, as discussed, is just icing on the cake.

Harman shined at Erin Hills in 2017 and then finished T36 at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, gaining more than 20 strokes from tee to green in those two events. That’s as far back as the shot tracking goes for U.S. Opens, and it was the start of Harman gaining at least two strokes on the field in seven straight U.S. Open championships.

Top 30: Ben James (+310)

Welcome to the PGA TOUR, Ben James! Thanks to winning the PGA TOUR U rankings, he now has full status on the PGA TOUR and put that to good use last week in Canada. He led after 36 holes last week but struggled on the weekend. No matter the finish, last week was a huge step in confidence and experience. Remember, that wasn’t exactly his first TOUR start. He’d actually played nine others, including two majors, before accepting his new job out of the University of Virginia.

By all accounts, Ben James is ready for the next step of his career. He’s gotten as high as the No. 2-ranked amateur in the world, and he was a four-time All-American in college. He’s been on two Walker Cup teams and two Palmer Cup teams. Including this year, he’s qualified for the U.S. Open in three consecutive years. He’s ready for this moment. Now it’s time to go out and do it.

To Make The Cut: Ben Kohles (+128)

Kohles has been bouncing back and forth between the Korn Ferry Tour and the PGA TOUR this year, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be doing that much longer. Thanks to his win at the BMW Charity Pro-Am, he’s in line to recapture his PGA TOUR card for next season.

Kohles gained an astonishing 10.22 strokes on approach during that victory. While that’s a ridiculous number, it shouldn’t be too surprising. He’s gained strokes on approach in all of his measured starts this year. In fact, he’s on a 17-tournament streak of beating the field on approach, so it’s clearly Kohles’ best attribute.

Kohles punched his ticket to the U.S. Open via Final Qualifying the day after his KFT victory. He’s playing stellar golf, getting hot at the right time, and has confidence and motivation. It’s a perfect storm for Kohles to find himself playing the weekend at Shinnecock Hills.