With These Odds, You Won't Find Us Betting Against Scottie This Week.

Water, water everywhere! That’s the story at TPC Twin Cities, which features water hazards on 15 different holes. They often come into play on both the drive and approach shot, creating big numbers on the scorecard. It has not been unusual for players to shoot themselves out of this event early on Thursday with a few wayward strikes.

This is a big qualifier, but outside of the water, there isn’t much to worry about at TPC Twin Cities. Nearly every hole plays under par, and the winning score will likely eclipse 20-under. If you can keep your ball dry, there are plenty of scoring opportunities.

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Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+275)

It might not be sexy, but Scottie Scheffler is the pick to win the 3M Open. This might be the biggest mismatch of Scheffler’s career when comparing his skill profile to everyone else in the field.

Over the last 50 rounds, Scheffler has gained 2.31 strokes per round. The next-best player in the field, Ben Kohles, is gaining 1.12. Scheffler has been twice as good as the second-best player in the field over the last 50 rounds. And that’s raw strokes gained! Scheffler is battling players in major championships and signature events, so the effective gap is likely even bigger than that.

This will be Scheffler’s first time teeing it up at TPC Twin Cities, but that shouldn’t be a problem. There’s nothing that experience will help with around this course, as it all sits right in front of the player. For good reason, Scheffler is the heavy favorite to double his 2026 win total this week.

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Top 10: Ben Kohles (+520)

As mentioned above, Kohles is the second-best player in this field over the last 50 rounds — behind only Scottie Scheffler. He’s one of the few players in this field who didn’t play anywhere last week and should be well-rested when he arrives in Blaine, Minnesota.

The last six starts for Kohles have been impressive. He’s earned six straight top-30s, including a win on the Korn Ferry Tour and … what should have been a win at the John Deere Classic. He found the water on the 72nd hole and finished T3 that week, but he followed it up with a solid T15 outing at the ISCO Championship just a few days later.

He’s clearly playing great golf, and now he earns the benefit of playing against one of the weakest fields he will battle all year.

Top 20: Pierceson Coody (+144)

It’s been a strong year for Coody, who has teed it up 21 times and earned 10 top-25 finishes along the way. He leans on his driver, which, when firing, can be one of the best in the game and certainly one of the best in the field this week.

That skill gives him a solid floor to work with, and then he needs to find a way to beat his peers in other facets. Recently, that’s been with the flatstick, as Coody has gained strokes putting in six of his last nine events.

He went through a little ball-striking slump this spring, but it seems like he’s come out of it. He’s been a positive approach player since the U.S. Open, and he will benefit from the test TPC Twin Cities offers.

Top 20: William Mouw (+260)

This is great timing for Mouw, who is starting to play the best golf of his season. He’s made four straight cuts, highlighted by his T10 at the ISCO Championship in his most recent event.

His approach play has been bonkers. During that 16-round stretch, he’s gained 15.44 strokes on approach, which is dangerously close to that 1.00-per-round “elite” benchmark.

I suspect the good vibes will continue as Mouw returns to TPC Twin Cities, where he gained 3.16 strokes on approach and finished T7 last year.