There's a Clear Favorite at Quail Hollow's Truist Championship. Here's Why We Like Him.

The friendly confines of Quail Hollow will once again host the Truist Championship. Remember, this event was played at Philadelphia Cricket Club last year because Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship. So despite the swap in tournaments, we still have an excellent history at Quail Hollow, with an event being played there every year in recent memory.

This is a big-boy golf course that rewards distance, and it rewards it differently than what we saw last week in Miami. There are a handful of spots at Quail Hollow where carrying the ball about 315 yards in the air is a massive advantage. It’ll allow players to completely remove the trouble off the tee, and fairways widen for the longest of hitters. That’s also why the course history here is rather “sticky,” meaning players have consistent results year over year.

Winner: Rory McIlroy (+600)

Expect anything different? McIlroy has won nearly 30% of his starts at Quail Hollow and is gaining 2.58 strokes per round at the venue. That is, by far, the best of anyone who has played at least five times in Charlotte. It’s also the TOUR venue where McIlroy has the best record, making him an elite course horse for this week.

It also helps that he will enter the week off his Masters victory, where he was elite in every facet of the game. The Northern Irishman is getting warmed up for a summer run, and this is the best place for him to stretch his legs.

Winner: Xander Schauffele (+1250)

It’s been a frustrating time as an outright backer of Schauffele because he’s been on the verge of breaking through seemingly all season. He’ll enter this week with four straight top-12 finishes, all in the game’s biggest events. He often looks on top of his game before making one or two silly mistakes and playing himself out of the tournament.

If there was a place for everything to click, it just might be Quail Hollow, where Schauffele has gained 1.55 strokes per round in his 22 career rounds. That includes two runner-up finishes, and it’s a venue that should reward his elite ball-striking ability.

Top 5: Alex Smalley (+1025)

Smalley has rattled off three top-20s in his last four starts, including a T7 finish last week in Miami. Despite his great finish last week, he left a handful of shots out there coming down the stretch each day. He peppered greens in regulation and flashed greatness with the putter. He’s close to having everything click, and I want to get a lot of reward for my risk. I believe Smalley is capable of this top-5 upside in a week where his approach play will be rewarded.

Top 10: Chris Gotterup (+305)

As one of the longest hitters on TOUR, Gotterup is going to be able to remove lots of trouble off the tee, which gives him one of the higher floors in the field. He was dismal on approach last week in Miami, losing 6.18 strokes to the field, but that was uncharacteristic. It ended a stretch of nine straight starts gaining strokes on approach, which makes me think it’s more of an outlier than something to be concerned about.

This will be Gotterup’s first crack at Quail Hollow, and it will almost certainly be a place that suits him well.

Top 20: Alex Fitzpatrick (+290)

This is nearly a disrespectful number for a golfer who has two wins — Zurich Classic and Indian Open — and a T9 at the Cadillac Championship in his last three starts. He’s long off the tee and accurate too, as evidenced by the 4.15 strokes he gained off the tee last week at the Blue Monster. He’s playing the best golf of his life on a course that will reward his biggest strengths.

Top 20: Matt McCarty (+196)

I’m awarding the “Most Trending” player to McCarty, who has piled up stellar finishing positions as of late. He earned a T9 last week by gaining 5.69 strokes on approach, the second-best mark in the field.

There are hardly any holes in his game, but it will be critical that he plays out of the fairway this week. The only concern is that he’s not very long off the tee, but he’s made up for that with accuracy and precision en route to those recent strong finishes.

He’s in complete control of his game, and we’re only asking him to finish in the top 25% of this field.