PGA Championship Picks: Why Our Resident Winner Picker Likes Xander & Scottie

The year’s second major returns to Aronimink Golf Club, outside of Philadelphia, which will pose a unique challenge to the game’s best players vying for glory. The venue has hosted a variety of high-level championships over the years including the triple crown of a PGA Championship, a Senior PGA Championship, and a Women’s PGA Championship. The most recent stop for the men's game was in 2018 for the BMW Championship – which was won by Keegan Bradley.

This is one of the deepest fields in golf with talent coming from all over the globe. The event is headlined by Scottie Scheffler, but the emergence of Cameron Young and the revitalization of Rory McIlroy is making the top of the board even more special than usual. Here are a few ways to tackle the betting board this week.

Winner: Xander Schauffele (+1900)

Alright it’s time. The 2024 PGA Champion hasn’t played like himself for a while but that bar was set very high. His statistical profile is starting to look like that of a Major Champion and he’s one of the better ball-strikers in the game right now. He’s gaining +1.34 strokes ball-striking which is the third best rate on TOUR behind only Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick. He’s showing glimpses of heating up with the flatstick and it’s just a matter of time before everything clicks.

He sets up well for Aronimink because he’s long off-the-tee and can work it in both directions. He’s excellent with distance control of his iron shots and he won’t encounter a short-game area too difficult for him. With the emergence of Cameron Young and the addition of Bryson Dechambeau and Jon Rahm to this field, Schauffele’s odds have drifted to a point where I am now comfortable clicking his name.

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+340)

I’m not sure if Scottie is going to win, but I know he’s going to be there on Sunday. He’s sitting on “only” one win this year but he has six top-5 finishes including three consecutive runners-up. Over the last three, he has gained over 30 strokes from tee-to-green which will be invaluable around Aronimink.

Since 2023, Scheffler has won 23% of Major Championships and has finished inside the top-5 in more than half of them. His +2.96 strokes gained per round is a half stroke better than anyone else in the world during that period. He’s incredibly likely to be in contention late in this event and he’s the most likely winner of the 2026 PGA Championship.

Top 5: Ludvig Aberg (+600)

This will be Ludvig’s tenth Major Championship start and he’s already compiling an impressive resume. In his first nine, he has five top-25 finishes including a runner-up at the Masters in 2024 and a seventh place finish at the Masters in 2025.

It should be no surprise that he finds success in Majors, where his strengths are magnified on these types of set-ups. He’s long and straight off-the-tee with the ability to catch fire with the putter. That would play on any course in the world, but it allows for even more separation on the sport’s most penal venues.

He’ll be the first to tell you that he coughed up THE PLAYERS Championship, holding the lead on the 11th tee on Sunday, but let’s zoom out a bit. He’ll enter this week with four top-5 finishes in his last six starts and no finish worse than T21. He’s ready to contend again.

Top 10: Tommy Fleetwood (+275)

After a small slump, Fleetwood showed me enough last week in Charlotte to boost my confidence in typing his name. His “slump” was a three tournament stretch where he lost strokes on approach in each event. Fleetwood snapped that at the Truist Championship gaining over four strokes on approach en route to his T5finish.

If he is returning to form, he is clearly one of the five best players in the world as evidenced by the +1.40 strokes gained per round since the start of 2025. That mark is the third best mark on TOUR behind only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. He’s sporting a 16.7% top-5 rate in Major Championships dating back to 2020 which is right up there with some of the game’s elite players. It’s the same rate as Xander Schauffele who has won two Majors during that span.

Top 20: David Puig (+280)

It’s been a stellar campaign for Puig across both LIV Golf and the DP World Tour. Since the turn of the calendar year, he has five top-10 finishes across both circuits. He’s proving to be competent across a variety of venues thanks to his great driving of the ball.

This will be his sixth Major Championship and he’s still looking for his first notable finish. His improved driver this year should provide a solid floor for him at Aronimink. He’s also putting better now than he ever has in his career which makes sense – he’s only 24 years old and still growing into his game. We are seeing him mature in real time and it only makes sense that his next step is to have his best Major Championship finish.

Top 20: Tyrrell Hatton (+164)

This man is starting to figure out how to play Major Championships. His last five majors have returned four top-16 finishes highlighted by a T3 at the Masters earlier this year. Since the start of the 2022 season, he has only missed one cut – the 2024 Open Championship.

During that stretch, he’s gaining 1.14 strokes per round to the field and has one of the highest top-20 rates in the world. His play on LIV Golf this year has been a mixed bag but he did post a T3 in Adelaide and a T10 in Singapore before his 17th last week.

Top 20: Sam Stevens (+355)

Stevens is one of the hardest working men in golf, having played 14 times already this year, with only Matt McCarty teeing it more frequently. Stevens is turning that volume into results, making all but one cut and and notching six top-25s. I’m most impressed with his ball-striking where he gained +0.67 strokes per round. That puts him firmly between Justin Rose and Gary Woodland this season, both who have found their way into the winner’s circle.

I’m not expecting a victory from Stevens, but I am expecting another solid week. He’s played six Major Championships in his career and has made the cut in all of them and have back-to-back top-25s entering this week.

Top 30: Alex Fitzpatrick

Are you a believer yet? This dude is good and he’s proving that every time he tees it up across the globe. He rattled off four straight top-25s including a win before the victory with Matt Fitzpatrick at the Zurich Classic. Then, in his two most recent events – both signature events – he’s compiled a T9 and a 4th place finish. He’s a special player who is clearly playing the best golf of his life right now. This week will be his second Major start of his career, earning a T17 at the 2023 Open Championship.