Best Bets for the Genesis Invitational: Why You Should Have Your Eye on Tommy at Riv

There’s no place to hide at Riviera Country Club. This venue demands elite ball-striking and short-game prowess that would make most professionals blush. This course can make even the greatest golfers on the planet look human — and that’s exactly what it has done to Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. They’ve combined for 14 trips around Riviera without a victory. The only course they’ve played more frequently without a win is TPC Southwind, where they’ve made 16 loops without lifting a trophy.

Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)

Fleetwood made his American debut last week and looked as sharp as ever. With four rounds of 68 or better, he resembled Vintage Tommy, gaining strokes in all four major categories. His ball-striking was crisp and his short game was stout en route to a T4 finish. He’ll look to build on his history at Riviera, where his results have steadily progressed: T37, T28, T20, T10.

Top 10: Jake Knapp (+260)

He’s made four starts in 2026, and his T11 at the Sony Open was his worst finish. His game has translated across a variety of course setups, and he has proven he can contend anywhere. He’s gained 2.31 strokes per round this year, second only to Scottie Scheffler. This will be his first loop around Riviera, but there’s no reason to think his game won’t translate to yet another venue.

Top 20: Matt Fitzpatrick (+105)

Since the start of 2025, Fitzpatrick boasts a 24% Top 10 rate, putting him ahead of notables like Chris Gotterup, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland. He’s knocking the cover off the ball, gaining 18.75 strokes ball-striking over the last two weeks.

Top 20: Nico Echavarria (+310)

One of the most volatile players on TOUR, it’s worth trying to catch him in the middle of a hot streak. He finished T8 last week, gaining eight strokes on approach — typically the most predictable skill set week to week. That’s his second Top 8 finish in his last five starts, even if the other three were missed cuts.

Winner Without Scheffler: Rory McIlroy (+1125)

McIlroy’s final-round 64 was overshadowed by Scheffler’s 63, but there were plenty of positive takeaways from his week at Pebble Beach. He gained 6.8 strokes on approach — just the sixth time in the last three years he has gained more than six strokes in that category. He’s never won at Riviera, but he has recorded three Top 10 finishes in the last six years.

Prop: Top European — Ludvig Aberg (+860)

There are legitimate concerns about the state of Aberg’s game, but this number feels too long for a small nationality market. He looked dreadful at Torrey Pines and was one of the worst players in the field on Thursday at Pebble Beach. However, he rebounded over the final three days, posting the sixth-best score in the field during that stretch.