Picks & Best Bets for the BMW Championship

How about that Justin Rose, huh? What a win from the 45-year-old. But now the playoffs roll on with the top 50 in the points standings at Caves Valley in Maryland—if that name sounds familiar, it should.

Caves hosted one of the best tournaments of 2021, when Patrick Cantlay defeated Bryson DeChambeau in an epic playoff. This is where the nickname “Patty Ice” was born. And coming off a top-10 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, it’s hard not to like his chances four years later.

But he’ll have plenty of big names to contend with, including Rory McIlroy, who’s set to make his postseason debut after deciding to skip Memphis. Despite not teeing it up at TPC Southwind, the Northern Irishman is still No. 2 in the FedExCup.

The course has undergone some serious changes since we last saw it, all in an effort to make it a little more difficult. I wouldn’t expect to see the winning score be as low as 2021—DeChambeau and Cantlay were 27-under.

Let’s jump into our preview for the week which includes a few picks to win.

Golf Course and Course Changes

Caves Valley Golf Club | Par 70 | 7,601 yards

Betting Odds for the BMW Championship

Scottie Scheffler (+220)

Rory McIlroy (+800)

Xander Schauffele (+1800)

Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)

Ludvig Aberg (+2200)

Patrick Cantlay (+2500)

Justin Thomas (+2500)

Cameron Young (+3000)

J.J. Spaun (+3000)

Maverick McNealy (+3300)

Russell Henley (+3500)

Collin Morikawa (+3500)

Sam Burns (+3500)

Viktor Hovland (+3500)

Kurt Kitayama (+3500)

Chris Gotterup (+3500)

Ben Griffin (+4000)

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)

Keegan Bradley (+4500)

Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)

Picks to Win the BMW Championship

Ludvig Aberg (22/1)

After winning the Genesis Invitational, Aberg had a rough stretch of golf. But since the start of June, the Swede has been rolling. In his last seven starts, Aberg has five top-25 finishes and two top-10s in his last three starts, including at last week’s FedEx St. Jude. He drove it well in Memphis—66% of fairways (T-14 in the field), 323.50 driving distance (third)—which bodes well for Caves, especially with its tightened fairways. Aberg’s game should fit this place pretty damn well.

Patrick Cantlay (25/1)

I’m going back to the “defending” champion in this spot. His approach play was outstanding in Memphis—Strokes Gained: Approach: 6.036 (fourth)—so if that carries over to this week, I love his chances. There have been changes to the course, so Cantlay will have to adjust like everyone else, but you gotta think he has some confidence, especially off the heels of a T-9 finish at the St. Jude.

Rickie Fowler (60/1)

That’s right, Rickie’s going on the card. In Memphis, he was fourth in SG: Off the Tee, 12th in SG: Approach, T-9 in driving accuracy, and T-7 in greens in regulation. If his putter wakes up at all, I really like his chances at the BMW. Plus, there’s been too much Rickie hate on my timeline recently and I don’t care for it at all. So, let’s ride with him in Maryland.