The PLAYERS Championship Best Bets: Why Rory's Still Our Guy

This is it. The best field in golf. They will convene on TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship, one of the most coveted titles in all of golf. Defending Champion, Rory McIlroy, enters with his health in doubt—withdrawing after two rounds at Bay Hill. The best player in the world, Scottie Scheffler, is coming off his worst results (T27) in a year.

TPC Sawgrass will test the field’s driving ability with a huge penalty for missing the fairway. It’s notorious for water on 17 different holes making big numbers a staple around this venue. It’s an event with volatile results but we’ll do our best to handicap them.

Winner: Rory McIlroy (+1000)

The back spasm induced WD at Bay Hill does provide a little concern, but not enough to remove McIlroy from my betting card. He had already gained three strokes off-the-tee in his two rounds which continued his dominance with the driver. He’s gained at least two strokes off-the-tee in six of his last eight worldwide starts. His game has arguably never been more complete as he returns to TPC Sawgrass to defend his title.

Top 5: Collin Morikawa (+430)

The last three weeks for Morikawa have been the best three weeks that we’ve seen from him in quite some time. The winner at Pebble Beach was followed by a T7 at Riviera and a 5th place finish at Bay Hill. He looks stout and confident on his approach shots and that is being reflected in the numbers. He’s gained over 17 strokes on approach during that 12 round stretch. That ability plus his incredible accuracy off-the-tee will be very valuable this week.

Top 10: Cameron Young (+270)

It’s not hyperbole to say that Cameron Young is one of the best five players in the world. Since June of last year, Young has gained +1.39 strokes per round across 18 events. The way he looked at Bay Hill was nearly flawless. He led the field in strokes gained off-the-tee and was top-20 in both approach play and putting. That’s a complete game that will be well-rewarded this week.

Top 10: Viktor Hovland (+350)

Hovland is “close” right now and seems like he’s on the verge of breaking out. He gained +2.5 strokes on approach last week at Bay Hill which marked the sixth consecutive event that he’s gained strokes in the category. The putter, while often a negative, can catch fire. We saw him gain 3.6 strokes putting in Phoenix and added +3.9 strokes last week. He has two top-10s in his PLAYERS Championship career and there’s optimism about him adding another this week.

Top 20: Min Woo Lee (+196)

Min Woo Lee has been testing a new unreleased prototype putter and it’s been paying immediate dividends. He’s gained over 10.5 strokes putting in his last three starts. That, combined with his already elite driving, has produced great results. He’s never shied away from a big moment and he’s earned a T6-T54-T20 in his three trips to TPC Sawgrass.

Top 20: Harris English (+200)

English missed seven straight cuts at THE PLAYERS Championship between 2014 and 2023 but his last two years have been much better. It was a T19 in 2024 and T30 last year while gaining more than four strokes ball-striking in each of those years. Over the past few years, he’s shined on difficult golf courses and he’s off to a great start in 2026. His worst finish this year was a T28 in Phoenix and he’s gaining strokes in all four major categories.