The Only Thing Hotter Than Memphis Right Now? Hideki Matsuyama.

The PGA TOUR playoffs are kicking off this week at a familiar venue — TPC Southwind. The course has bounced around across a variety of events, but it has always been a staple on the schedule. That means we have plenty of history, trends and data to consider when building our cards.

The main objective at TPC Southwind is to find the fairway. Missing the short grass, on average, comes with a +0.49-stroke penalty, which is the fourth-highest on the PGA TOUR schedule. Because of that, you’ll see accurate drivers find an edge and those who can avoid making bogey vault up the leaderboard.

The winning score here is often held in check, with four rounds of 66 or 67 usually good enough to have players in contention. It’ll prove to be a stout test for the top 70 players on TOUR this year.

I simply cannot quit Hideki Matsuyama, and honestly, I don’t think I should have to! It’s exceedingly clear that his game is as sharp as it’s been all year, and he’s laying the foundation for a victory. His driver has gone from a deficiency to a weapon over his last five starts, which has completely turned his season around.

He’s now rattled off five straight top-15 finishes, and he’s heading to the friendly confines of TPC Southwind. In his career at this venue, Matsuyama has a win, a runner-up finish and three more top-20s in just six starts. He’s routinely separated himself from his peers with elite approach play. If there was ever a time and place for trends to converge, it would be right here and right now.

The greatness of Scottie Scheffler continued in his most recent start, a runner-up finish in which he had the best putting week of his year and tacked on another +8.16 strokes from tee to green. It wasn’t good enough for victory, which is how Scheffler is measured, but it marked his 10th top-five finish in 17 starts this year.

Over the last two years at TPC Southwind, Scheffler has only been beaten by five total golfers and has finished inside the top five in both editions. His stat lines are eerily similar—gaining roughly eight strokes from tee to green in both starts while adding another 2-plus with the flatstick in each. He’s not the longest nor the most accurate driver on TOUR, but he does both at such a high level that he is one of the best drivers on the planet. His strong approach play will continue to pay dividends in Memphis this week, and there is little doubt about whether he’ll be in contention once again.

TPC Southwind requires golfers to play from the fairway, which should be music to the ears of Si Woo Kim. He hits 70% of his fairways and is one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR. This year, he’s gaining +0.67 strokes per round on approach, which is the best mark of his career and currently ranks inside the top 10 on TOUR.

The only concern for Kim is that he’s been unable to figure out TPC Southwind in his career. The results aren’t poor, but they are a little underwhelming. He’s gone T14-T50-T16-T42 in his four trips to Memphis, with a glaring deficiency on the putting surfaces. In those 16 rounds, Kim has lost 9.6 strokes putting. While I recognize that concern, I also recognize that this is Kim’s best putting year since 2020, and he looks much more confident on the greens than he has in recent years. I’m willing to take on the risk on the greens while the rest of his game looks so sharp.

The last we saw of Cantlay was at the Rocket Classic, where he struggled on Saturday but still earned a T8 finish. There were plenty of encouraging signs for Cantlay, who gained over six shots on approach, which was the best approach week of his season. It was also his fourth top-10 finish in his last 11 starts.

Now he heads to TPC Southwind, where he’s routinely been in contention. Over the last three years, he’s finished T9-T12-2nd thanks to all-around great play. Those 12 rounds equate to a +1.65 SG/rd average, which is elite for any player at any course. The timing for Cantlay feels right, and his course history is strong enough to garner a click.

I’m not sure how the fifth-ranked player in the world is having such an under-the-radar season, but it feels that way for Russell Henley. His season highlight came by winning the Charles Schwab Challenge, but he has piled up 12 top-25 finishes in his 17 starts this year, with five of those being top-10s.

On paper, this should be one of the better venues for Henley, who excels by hitting fairways at an elite clip. Then he is one of the best approach players in the world, with a putter that can get absolutely scorching hot. He’s been struggling around the greens over his last six starts, but if everything else goes right, he won’t need to lean on that facet of his game.