Three Players to Watch (and a Parlay) for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

One of my favorite weeks of the year is here. We’re back at Bay Hill to honor The King, and the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational is stacked with the PGA TOUR’s best.

The third Signature Event of the season tees off Thursday morning, but by Sunday afternoon, I’m expecting a heavyweight bout. If there’s one course on TOUR that screams “horses for courses,” it’s Bay Hill. I’d be shocked if Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy aren’t lurking with nine to play—and if things break right, we might even get them in the final group together.

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A Scheffler-McIlroy duel? That’s a pretty good appetizer for THE PLAYERS next week and Augusta next month.

Before we get there, here are three guys I’ll be watching closely in Orlando. It’s only right to start with the man who’s turned Arnie’s place into something of a personal ATM.

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Players to Watch at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Rory McIlroy

Picks to consider: Top 10 (+105), Win (+1000)

It feels redundant to say McIlroy is in form—he’s the No. 2 player in the world for a reason. He opened the season with a T-14 at Pebble Beach, finished runner-up at Riviera, and oh by the way, won the Seminole Pro-Member with his dad on Monday.

Now he returns to Bay Hill, where the track record is absurdly consistent: 11 starts, 10 finishes inside the top 25. The “worst” showing? A T-27.

He’s going to hit driver early and often—and when Rory can swing freely, good things usually follow.

He’ll give himself a chance Sunday. The question is whether he converts.

Tommy Fleetwood

Picks to consider: Top 20 (-140), Win (+2000)

The other half of Fleetwood Mac.

Like Rory, Fleetwood has only teed it up twice on TOUR this season: T-4 at Pebble, T-7 at Riviera. I checked—that’ll play.

His Bay Hill resume is volatile, but the ceiling outweighs the floor. Yes, he missed the cut in 2020 and 2024 and finished T-61 in 2023. But he’s also posted T-11 or better in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2025.

The form is there. The course history has spikes—I’m betting on those.

Corey Connors

Picks to consider: Top 30 (+108), Top 20 (+198)

Connors hasn’t cracked a top 20 in four starts this season. I don’t care.

When he shows up at Bay Hill, he goes straight onto the card.

After missing the cut in his first two appearances here, he’s gone third (2021), T-11 (2022), T-21 (2023), T-18 (2024), and third (2025).

With thick rough lining every fairway, driving accuracy matters. Connors ranks sixth on TOUR in that category, which means more looks from the short grass and fewer hack-outs. I’ll take long irons from the fairway over wedge-and-a-prayer from the cabbage every time.

Parlay of the Week

McIlroy (Top 10) + Fleetwood (Top 20) + Connors (Top 30): +625