Rick's Picks: Scottie to Win, a Sahith Top 20, and More for the WM Phoenix Open

“This course will test all facets of your game” is a totally overused phrase that is often used as a crutch in course analysis – except this week. In fact, this week, it’s spot-on. The desert lurks to collect wayward tee shots while water resides on six holes for loose approaches. Once you get closer to the green, tight collection areas will make scrambling difficult and then you throw in the hundreds of thousands of maniacs who will be watching your every move. It’s not an easy place to play and can make you look foolish if you aren’t sharp.

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+210)

What else is there to say about Scottie Scheffler? He’s the best player in the world, coming off a win, and has elite history here at TPC Scottsdale. He’s picking up more than 2.5 strokes per round to the field at this venue, a rate that is absurd even by his historically lofty standards. The well-rounded nature of Scheffler’s game will be rewarded this week as he goes for his fifth win in his last eight starts.

Top 10: Michael Thorbjornsen (+385)

TPC Scottsdale is a full throttle venue and Michael Thorbjornsen is a full throttle player. This will either end with him in contention late on Sunday or going home on Friday. I’m optimistic so I’ll side with the former. He picked apart the South Course last week at Torrey Pines and earned a T18 finish. His +6.7 strokes gained from tee-to-green is an indication of his upside. As long as he can avoid the desert and the water, Thorbjornsen seems primed for a big week.

Top 20: Maverick McNealy (+126)

McNealy has played eight rounds this season and has beaten the field in seven of them, including all four last week in La Jolla. More impressively, he’s gained strokes in all four categories for both of those events. He’s emerged as a well-rounded, high-upside player who seems to be getting better every week. The back-to-back Top 10s here in Phoenix don’t hurt either.

Top 20: Sahith Theegala (+190)

Theegala is probably my “most bet” man of 2026 thus far and I don’t see it stopping anytime soon. He’s earned back-to-back Top 8 finishes in the last two weeks despite having one bad round at each tournament. There’s still plenty of juice to squeeze out of his game right now as he returns to TPC Scottsdale where he has two Top 5 finishes and has never missed a cut.

Prop: Si Woo Kim Top Asian (+280)

Over the last 50 rounds, Kim has gained 1.08 strokes on approach, which is the second best rate in this field – behind only Scottie Scheffler. His 2026 campaign couldn’t have started any better with three straight Top 11 finishes and his history at TPC Scottsdale is solid. He’s boasting four straight Top 26 results. This is the convergence of great recent form and course history.

Prop: Harris English To Miss The Cut (+275)

English is generally one of the most consistent players on TOUR … except at TPC Scottsdale. Over his last six trips, he has two Top 20s and four missed cuts – nothing in-between! He’s lost strokes on approach in five straight trips and has been reliant on his flat-stick to bail him out. That’s a dangerous game to play around this venue.