Rick's Picks: Here's Who We Like (and Their Odds) at the 2026 Sony Open

The PGA TOUR season is finally underway as the circuit heads to Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open. The venue plays just a shade over 7,000 yards and rewards accuracy over power. Despite the short yardage on the scorecard, Waialae CC boasts generous greens which players will attack with wedges and short-irons. Mother Nature usually has the final say in the winning score, which can be very dependent on how much wind graces the grounds over the four tournament days.

Winner: JJ Spaun (+2000)

This is a purely disrespectful line for Spaun who was one of the best five players in the world last season. He gained 1.22 strokes per round in 2025 which is an elite level on the professional tour. The vast majority of those gains came via the ball-striking categories and now he gets to play a course that should benefit his “precision over power” style of play. There’s nothing in Spaun’s statistical profile that suggests a significant regression is coming in 2026.

Top 10: Emiliano Grillo (+500)

If you’re looking for safety and security, look elsewhere. Grillo is one of the more volatile players in the field and I’m looking to embrace his upside with a Top 10 wager. He’s always been a stellar tee-to-green player and he was significantly improved with the flatstick this fall. His worst attribute, his around-the-green play, should be covered up by the high rate of greens in regulation at Waialae CC.

Top 20: Nico Echavarria (+175)

Get Nico where he can see a body of water and watch him perform! Of his best career TOUR finishes, most have come in Puerto Rico, Honolulu, Sea Island, Mexico, and Corales. He played a significant schedule this fall, teeing it up five times. He earned (3) Top 15 finishes, highlighted by his T4 at the RSM Classic. He’s improved each year that he’s been on TOUR and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue into 2026.

Prop: Playoff (+400)

Waialae CC doesn’t have a lot of thin margins – where a small difference in shot quality translates to a large difference in shot value. It’s basically “all out in front of you”. Since most golfers are going to hit greens in regulation at a rate significantly higher than TOUR average, the way to separate often comes on the putting surfaces. This style of play leads to really close finishes. Each of the last six editions have been won in a playoff or by exactly one shot.

Matchup: Collin Morikawa (-110) over Russell Henley (-110)

I’m cautiously optimistic about 2026 for Morikawa. He gained +1.08 strokes from tee-to-green last year with most of that coming from his elite approach play. The putter is still a problem but that’s nothing new. His ability to play out of the fairway and take aim at flagsticks should give him a significant advantage this week.