‘You Can’t Hide on These Courses’: The Four Year Trend Pointing to a Masters Winner

Since 2022, the five-week west coast swing on the PGA TOUR has done a consistent job of showing us which players in good form will go on to win at Augusta.

Dating back to Scottie Scheffler’s first green jacket in 2022, Masters winners have either won out west before arriving at Augusta, or played their way into contention with a steady drumbeat of early top-10s. It’s a trend that’s hard to ignore—especially because so many of these venues ask the same kinds of questions Augusta does: elite ball-striking, confident shot-shaping, and the ability to separate yourself on a golf course that won’t let you fake it.

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Image: Scottie Scheffler after winning The American Express 2026. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

That’s exactly why longtime broadcaster Dottie Pepper has been circling the West Coast stretch as more than just a warmup.

“I think you look at our first four events and you have three of them that have hosted major championships,” Pepper said on a media call before the CBS season kicked off at Torrey Pines last month. “I think you really pay attention to those three–at Torrey, at AT&T (Pebble Beach), and at Riviera-because the golf course can separate a field. It lets you know if you’ve got it, or if you don’t. You can’t hide on these courses.”

Image: Justin Rose with his caddie Mark Fulcher after his winning putt on during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open 2026 at Torrey Pines. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

The numbers back her up. PGA TOUR ShotLink data from Pebble Beach last season showed just how much these early tests demand a specific skill set: in 2025, the front nine at Pebble had the highest percentage all season of players hitting right-to-left tee shots on par 4s and par 5s. Over half of the field leaned on that shape during Rory McIlroy’s winning week at Pebble—the highest percentage all season.

“I think those three (Torrey, Pebble, and Riviera) are sort of the taste test for what we could see at Augusta,” Pepper says.

On a recent CBS media call, Jim Nantz was in the same camp on the topic. He’s reached the point where the pattern feels almost too obvious.

“Just take last year with Rory winning at Pebble, winning at Augusta. Scottie in ’22 winning his first ever tournament at Waste Management and then winning his first major (The Masters) the same year,” Nantz said on the call. “It’s eerie. Never done a real study on it, but how many times have we had a sneak preview of the eventual Masters champion unfold on the west coast?”

Image: Rory McIlroy after winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025. (Photo by Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

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Again, these past four Masters champs were:

2022: Scottie Scheffler (Won in Phoenix in a playoff)

2023: Jon Rahm (Won at Riviera by four)

2024: Scottie Sheffler (Posted three top 10s on the west coast)

2025: Rory McIlroy (Won at Pebble by two)

Golf Channel analyst Paul Azinger offers his own explanation.

“The level of confidence gained by winning early is huge, and it carries you on into the Masters,” Azinger told Skratch this week.” And you’re also playing iconic courses in a prime time window with a lot of people watching. I also felt as a player that winning on the west coast was more challenging because everyone wanted to start the season fast.”

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That said, three-time Masters champ Nick Faldo has always stressed the importance of having good mental pictures of the types of shots you want to hit going into a tournament. Faldo added on Thursday that there’s “not really” enough similar types of shots that transfer from the west coast events to Augusta National to make a significant difference.

“It’s not just limited to the West Coast,” Faldo told Skratch on Thursday. “I always thought if I could play well [in March], then you definitely started thinking of your Masters preparation.”

Since 2022, the only winner at Augusta who played less than three times on the west coast beforehand was McIlroy last year, who only played Pebble and Riviera. In 2022, Scheffler played four west coast events. Jon Rahm played four events and won at Palm Springs and Riviera in 2023. Scheffler played in four in 2024 and had three top tens.

“You don’t want to be searching for form leading into Augusta,” CBS Sports’ Frank Nobilo told Skratch on Thursday. “Scottie was a great example last year. After his injury to his hand he was playing catch up the first third of the season. He just couldn’t find form quick enough.”

Scheffler’s on track to play four of the west coast stops this time around, only missing Torrey, and he’s already won at the American Express last month. There’s a lot of factors that make Scheffler the leading favorite for the Masters of late but it certainly can’t hurt getting early season west coast wins to add to his memory bank with the year’s first major less than two months out.

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