Picks to Win & Best Bets for the Genesis Scottish Open

The Masters is far and away my favorite golf tournament. However, I will say that, as I’ve grown older and perhaps become more appreciative of the history of our game, the Scottish Open and The Open have become my favorite two-week stretch on the calendar. I’m up at 4 a.m., pot of coffee brewing on the kitchen counter, and I’m locked in all day.

It’s just tough to beat links golf, man.

And this week, we’re a little spoiled. The field taking on The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, is absolutely loaded. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, and defending champ Robert MacIntyre. I mean, how good is that?

But it’s been a bit since we’ve picked a winner. Let’s change that.

Golf Course & Course History

The Renaissance Club | Par 70 | 7,282 yards

Odds to Win the Genesis Scottish Open

Scottie Scheffler (+360)

Rory McIlroy (+800)

Xander Schauffele (+2000)

Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)

Collin Morikawa (+2500)

Ludvig Aberg (+3000)

Robert MacIntyre (+3000)

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3400)

Justin Thomas (+3500)

Sam Burns (+4000)

Viktor Hovland (+4000)

Corey Conners (+4500)

Sepp Straka (+5000)

Adam Scott (+5500)

J.J. Spaun (+6000)

Aaron Rai (+6500)

Ryan Fox (+6500)

Harris English (+6500)

Taylor Pendrith (+7000)

Harry Hall (+7000)

Picks to Win the Genesis Scottish Open

Tommy Fleetwood (22/1)

It’s been a long time since I’ve felt sick to my stomach for someone else, but Tommy’s final hole at the Travelers a few weeks back did just that. Now, this either goes one of two ways: he misses the cut in his first start back, or he wins. I don’t make the rules, but that feels like a guarantee. He’s eventually going to knock one of these down; he’s just playing too well not to. In his last seven starts, he finished seventh or better four times. Plus, he loves this place. He finished T-6 in 2023, T-4 in ‘22, T-26 in ‘21, and lost in a playoff to Aaron Rai in 2020. He’s in form and playing a golf course he thrives at, that’s usually a recipe for a W. But this week will come down to the mental side for Tommy.

Matt Fitzpatrick (34/1)

I didn’t expect to have this guy on the card, I’m gonna be honest. But since missing the cut at the Zurich Classic, the Englishman has been playing some pretty good golf. He’s finished T-38 or better in six straight starts, with four of those being top-25s. He’s coming off a great week at the Travelers Championship, where he tied for eighth. And as for some of his history at The Renaissance Club, Fitzy tied for 39th last season, missed the cut in ‘23, finished T-6 in ‘22, lost in a playoff to Min Woo Lee in ‘21, and tied for 14th in ‘19. I’m going back and forth on whether to bet him outright, but a top-20 bet at +160 feels pretty good.

Justin Thomas (35/1)

Sure, JT hasn’t played well in major championships this year. But in regular TOUR stops? The guy is in contention almost every week, so 35/1 odds were too good to pass up, especially for a player like JT. Since tying for 36th at the Masters, Thomas has won the RBC Heritage, finished T-2 at the Truist Championship, tied for 31st at the Memorial, and for ninth at the Travelers in non-majors. And, sure, on the surface, he hasn’t played well at The Renaissance Club over the last few years, finishing T-62 (2024), T-60 (2023), and MC (2022). However, if you go back to the years when this event wasn’t co-sanctioned between the TOUR and the DP World Tour, JT put in some work. He tied for eighth in ‘21 and for ninth in ‘19.

Sam Burns (40/1)

These odds tell me that folks have forgotten how well Burns is playing. Let’s recap his last few months: T-13 (RBC Heritage), T-5 (CJ CUP), T-30 (Truist), T-19 (PGA), T-12 (Memorial), Playoff loss (RBC Canadian Open), T-7 (U.S. Open), and T-17 (Travelers). There might be five guys playing better golf than him right now. But how has he played The Renaissance? T-19 in 2023, T-66 in 2022, and T-18 in 2021. Yeah, 40/1 sounds pretty good for Mr. Burns.

Brian Harman (100/1)

Odds were just too good. Couldn’t pass this up. Certain courses fit Harman's game, and that list includes The Renaissance Club. Since missing the cut here in 2022, he’s finished T-12 in 2023 and T-21 in 2024. And he’s coming off a nice showing at the Travelers, grabbing solo eighth. 100/1 is worth a sprinkle.