Have You Been Paying Attention to Ryan Gerard?

The TOUR turns to PGA National for the first leg of its “Florida Swing.” The next few weeks will be highlighted by flat golf courses, pure bermudagrass greens, and water lurking on nearly every shot. PGA National will be a great introductory lesson for those attributes as it boasts 15 holes with water in play. The course has been softened over the years and winning scores have gotten deeper under par, but will still be a tough test with a wide range of scores being made.

Winner: Ryan Gerard (+2700)

Simply put – I think Ryan Gerard is the best player in this field. The numbers on that back me up, with Gerard gaining +2.25 strokes per round in 2026 – the highest mark of anyone in this field. He’s been nearly flawless this year on the putting surfaces until he lost 3.7 strokes to the field on those pesky poa annua greens at Riviera. The switch to bermudagrass will benefit Gerard and give him an excellent chance to contend for victory.

Top 5: Shane Lowry (+415)

Lowry can boast one of the best records around PGA National with four straight Top 11 finishes and a total of eight starts without ever missing the cut. His 2026 has been solid with a T8 at Pebble Beach and T24 at Riviera. Both weeks he struggled for one day which removed him from true contention but he’s clearly on the verge of another good week at PGA National.

Top 10: Michael Thorbjornsen (+265)

This is a risky Top 10 play, but Thorbjornsen’s upside is undeniable. He has three Top 10s in his last eight starts, mostly thanks to his elite driving. He’s got all the speed in the world and he’s quite accurate compared to his high voltage peers. If he can keep his ball dry at PGA National, his path to the top of the board becomes much more manageable.

Top 20: Adam Scott (-104)

Since the start of 2026, Adam Scott has gained 1.44 strokes per round in the two ball-striking categories. That’s the third most in this field behind Shane Lowry and Johnny Keefer. He made a mid-tournament putter change last week and immediately saw the benefits. He gained 4.6 strokes on the surfaces at Riviera and shot the round of the week (63) on two separate occasions.

Top 20: David Ford (+400)

His status doesn’t offer him as many playing opportunities as he would like, but Ford has played three times this year – highlighted by a T13 at The American Express. He’s gained significant strokes from tee-to-green in five of his last six starts and his talent seems to be improving with every loop.

First Round Leader: Seamus Power (+6900)

Power is a fast starter, gaining over 12 strokes to the field in his three opening rounds of 2026. Even more importantly, he has the ability to get scorching hot – which is an attribute often needed to shoot the round of the day. He’s gained at least four strokes putting in two of those three opening rounds and is gaining over a stroke per round across all 2026 rounds.

Winner Without (Lowry, Scott, Griffin, Bridgeman): Nicolai Hojgaard (+2350)

Nicolai has found his game and is knocking the cover off the ball. Dating back to Abu Dhabi in November, he’s gained strokes on approach in six straight starts which has rewarded his backers with three Top 4 finishes. This is easily the best golf he’s played in a few years and arguably the best golf that he’s played in his career.