The Best Stat to Predict Who Will Win the Masters

Shoutout to Kyle Porter. Every year he puts this list together, and it’s my favorite stat to look at going into Masters week: 11 of the last 13 champions at Augusta National have been +1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green in the three months leading up to the tournament.

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For 2026, 11 players fill that criteria: Collin Morikawa (2.2), Matt Fitzpatrick (2.1), Si Woo Kim (2.1), Jon Rahm (2), Rory McIlroy (2), Scottie Scheffler (1.9), Cameron Young (1.8), Ludvig Aberg (1.8), Min Woo Lee (1.7), Chris Gotterup (1.7), and Sepp Straka (1.7).

If you’re a stats believer, one of those guys will slip on the Green Jacket come Sunday.

And to make your pick selection a little easier, here’s a look at each player’s notable history at the Masters.

Rahm, McIlroy, and Scheffler: past champions

Morikawa: T-18 or better in last five appearances

Fitzpatrick: 10 straight made cuts, T-10 in 2023, T-7 in 2016

Kim: One top-20 finish in eight starts (T-12 in 2021)

Young: Two top-10 finishes in four starts (T-7 in 2023, T-9 in 2024)

Aberg: Two top-10 finishes in two appearances (2nd in 2024, 7th in 2025)

Lee: One top-20 finish in four starts (T-14 in 2022)

Gotterup: No previous starts

Straka: One top-20 finish in four starts (T-16 in 2024)

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